• Services
    • Transformation Consultants
    • Safety Consultants
    • Leadership and Organizational Performance
    • Major Capital Projects
    • High Integrity Turnarounds™
    • The School of Coaching
  • Impact
    • What Clients Say
    • Client Results
  • Insights
    • Articles, Blogs & Poetry
    • Press Releases
    • Events
    • Transformation Talks Podcast
  • People
    • Global Leadership Team and Partners
    • Partners
    • Managing Consultants
    • Board of Directors
    • Founders
  • About Us
    • Our History
    • Our Vision
    • Our Perspective
  • Careers
  • Contact Us
  • Let's Talk

Cursed megaprojects: Why are they never finished on time?

Published by Chloe Handley at January 8, 2020
JMJ Associates Logo
Cursed megaprojects: Why are they never finished on time?
Latest News
  • From the Web

Cursed megaprojects: Why are they never finished on time?

Latest Blogs

Jan 8, 2020


Why do major capital projects often arrive over-budget and later than expected? In stats according to the Oxford Global Projects Database, nearly 12,000 megaprojects share the above distinctions on timeliness and costliness.

The OGPD claims that megaprojects in every category did not meet the time and budget expectations. This includes nearly 40% of all rail projects and 60% of aerospace megaprojects. Shockingly, only 8% of all major capital projects were delivered at the expected timeline and budget. We can do better.

Why do megaprojects fail to be on time and budget? A study undertaken by Oxford Major Projects maintains that the problems in budget and scheduling begin with incorrect forecasting models. These megaprojects are extremely complicated. For these reasons, major capital projects can present challenges to even the most skilled project manager.

To make these megaprojects tenable, project managers break down these major capital projects into bite-sized manageable chunks. There is a risk management process called Monte Carlo analysis. This involves a kind of risk simulation by running various problem scenarios through a computer simulation to determine the myriad of ways a project could go wrong. This gives project managers a “three-point estimate” which breaks down the project into a series of dates that predict when the megaproject’s completion is “very unlikely”, “somewhat likely”, and “very likely”. However, many experts claim this three-point estimate is flawed because of “uniqueness bias” which occurs when project managers assume that their complicated megaproject is the first of its kind.

Major capital projects are also susceptible to extremely rare disasters called “Black Swan” events. These need to be taken into account because megaprojects take such a long time to be complete. There is good news on the forecasting horizon that can pre-empt these problems. This is called “reference class forecasting and it was developed by behavioral scientists Daniel Hahneman and Amo Tverskey. In this new methodology, algorithms work to analyze and compile previous megaprojects with the experience and expertise of the engineers and project managers who guide these major capital projects. However, this type of forecasting can only succeed if the construction industry trusts this new type of big data.

Read the source article at Planning, BIM & Construction Today



Thomas Owen of Re-Space explores the dilemma governments often face when building megaprojects – mainly, why they always seem to cost a lot more and take a lot more time than planned

If it always seems like a megaproject is destined to cost more and arrive later than planned — then you are right. At least, that’s according to the Oxford Global Projects Database, which holds the data on nearly 12,000 different projects.

According to the OGPD, nearly every category failed to meet its time and budget deadlines, including 39% of rail projects and 61% of aerospace projects. Only 7.8% of all projects were delivered on time and on budget, and only 0.5% provided all of the “expected benefits” that they were intended for.

Read the source article at EHS Today


View All Client Results

Capital Projects Client Results
DSME Completes TCO FGP WPMP Fabrication Safely and ahead of Schedule for the Tengizchevroil Expansion Project
DSME Completes
Client Results Manufacturing
Global Manufacturing Corporation Reduces Quality Defects and Improves Bottom-Line Performance
One of the worl
DSHI Fabrication Yards in Korea Builds Strong Safety Culture on TCO FGP Major Capital Project
Client Results Safety
DSHI Fabrication Yards in Korea Builds Strong Safety Culture on TCO FGP Major Capital Project
At Korean fabri
Japanese Engineering & Construction Corporat Achieves Breakthrough Improvement in Safety Performance
Client Results Safety
Japanese Engineering & Construction Corporation Achieves Breakthrough Improvement in Safety Performance
The JGC Corpora
Russian Petroleum Operations Company Achieves a Shift in its Health and Safety Culture
Client Results Safety
Russian Petroleum Operations Company Achieves a Shift in its Health and Safety Culture in 9 Months
SPD had been wo



From the Web

Your Coronavirus Questions, Answered by Experts
Coronavirus From the web
Your Coronavirus Questions, Answered by Experts.
With the coronavirus sending us all indo
coronavirus
From the web
Working from home because of coronavirus? Be careful what you download to keep cybersafe
Welcome to the new normal: working from
Increase engagement through communication
From the web
Increase engagement through communication
Safety training sessions and conducting
Why do major capital projects often arrive over-budget and later than expected? In stats according to the Oxford Global Projects Database, nearly 12,000 megaprojects share the above distinctions on timeliness and costliness.

  • Author
Chloe Handley
Chloe Handley Administrator
Chloe Handley has progressed to Global Senior Marketing and Communications Specialist since joining JMJ in 2011. Chloé’s experience spans both agency and in-house; working with brands such as Sodexo, Rics, Neopost, Harley Medical Group, Lancashire Constabulary, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals and Coca-Cola. Her experience spans lead generation through digital design and marketing, brand narrative and consistent business and client-focused targeted marketing communications. Chloé’s responsible for managing brand development and marketing and communication strategies across JMJ, helping to drive growth and maintain JMJ’s market lead position. She works with internal teams to develop tailored marketing plans across a range of communications channels – in line with JMJ’s business development objectives.
follow me
JMJ
  • Corporate Headquarters
    Arboretum Plaza One
    9442 N. Capital of Texas Highway, Suite 450,
    Austin, Texas 78759
  • +1 (512) 795-0795
  • Email Us

Services

  • Transformation Consultants
  • Safety Consultants
  • Leadership and Organizational Performance
  • Major Capital Projects
  • High Integrity Turnarounds™
  • The School of Coaching

Locations

  • Americas Office – Austin
  • APAC Office – Singapore
  • EMEA Office – London
  • Middle East Office – Doha
  • Kazakhstan Office – Atyrau
  • South Korea Office – Seoul
  • Australia Office – Perth

Connect

  • linkedin
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • Youtube
Privacy | Terms of Use | Trademarks | Accessibility | Cookie Policy | Feedback | Site Map |

© 2020 JMJ Associates LLP. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of JMJ Associates content or logo, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of JMJ Associates.

    Start Unlocking Human Performance


    Arrange a call with one of our consultants today. Please complete your details below:

    • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
    This site uses cookies to provide you with a more personalised service. By using this site you agree to our use of cookies. Please read our cookie policy for more information on the cookies we use and how to delete or block them.Accept Read More
    Privacy & Cookies Policy

    Privacy Overview

    This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
    Necessary
    Always Enabled

    Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.

    Non-necessary

    Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.

    SAVE & ACCEPT